- Gen X and younger voters have shifted to the right in recent polls, favoring Trump more than in 2020.
- Economic concerns and social media strategies influenced General Z’s political shift.
- Meanwhile, Gen Xers already disapprove of President Joe Biden more.
The 2024 election saw some big changes in the way the generations voted, early exit poll data is suggested.
Democrats lost a lot of ground with Gen Z, while Republicans gained Gen X by a much larger margin than in 2020. Meanwhile, millennials saw a much smaller shift to the right, and boomers were actually more likely to vote Democratic than they were four years ago. before.
The results challenge some long-held stereotypes about the generations’ political positions. For example, supposedly progressive general Zers showed more conservative leanings this election than in the past, and the aging breeders avoided the idea that they are becoming more conservative as they age.
To be sure, the early exit poll data has a wide margin of error. As more votes are counted in the coming days and months, more accurate data will emerge on the shape of the 2024 electorate.
Younger voters and those entering middle age moved strongly to the right. Gen X — which slightly favored President-elect Donald Trump by a one-point margin in 2020 — shifted 9 points toward Trump this cycle. Gen Z favored Vice President Kamala Harris by 11 points, compared to 24 points for President Joe Biden.
Meanwhile, millennials and their faster parents were less likely to swing toward Trump. Millennials favored Harris by one point, a five-point difference from Biden’s six-point margin in 2020. Boomers went from supporting Trump by five points in 2020 to an even tie between the two candidates this year and were the only age group that voted more democrats.
Gen Z’s big shift to the right wasn’t entirely unexpected. Teenagers were twice as likely to identify as more conservative than their parents compared to millennials 20 years ago, according to a Gallup and Walton Family Foundation study conducted last fall.
The Trump campaign put a lot of focus on this age group. Andrew Heyward, a former president of CBS News, told the New York Times that Trump has become an “emerging media master” of partnering with influencers and online personalities. Trump appeared frequently on podcasts, streams and TikToks consumed primarily by Gen Z and millennial audiences, including The Joe Rogan Experience.
This strategy may have convinced young voters that the GOP gets them better than the Democrats. “People don’t really vote for what they want, they vote for who they are,” Jason Brennan, a professor of strategy, public policy and economics at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business, told BI.
“I think a lot of young people look at the Democrats’ messaging and are turned off by it,” Brennan said, and that may at least partially explain the generational shift.
Gen X-er parents of Gen Z — or at least some of them — are also leaning right, as the generation’s forgotten middle child shifted dramatically toward Trump.
Gen X already disapproved of Biden the most among generations, according to the latest 2023 polls by NPR, PBS NewsHour and Marist.
Their role, caught between caring for children and aging parents, has them in a particularly precarious economic spot. They are the generation most likely to say they don’t feel financially secure. Many are worried about saving for retirement, while some continue to stress about buying a home. Some yearn for the success of their younger generation’s silent parents, Amy Walter, a nonpartisan political analyst with The Cook Political Report, told NPR.
Meanwhile, boomers are a bit more of an enigma, according to Brennan. Their shift may be down to a dark demographic reality—men who get older are more likely to die earlier than their female counterparts, and women tend to be more likely to vote Democratic than men. But more broadly, the results can also be chalked up to a lack of enthusiasm.
“What it takes to win is you have to get your base to come out and then you have to get voters to move to you,” Brennan said.
Are you a right-shifting Gen Z or a left-shifting boomer? Contact these journalists at jkaplan@businessinsider.com AND nsheidlower@businessinsider.com.