- The United States has sent billions of dollars worth of ammunition to Ukraine and Israel in recent years.
- The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East show the US how much ammunition it will need for its next big war.
- Former US military officers say the request came as a surprise, calling for an increase in production.
From Ukraine to Israel, the US has shipped billions of dollars worth of munitions to its key partners as they fight two serious — and very different — conflicts that appear to show no signs of slowing.
These two wars, and the US Navy’s demanding mission against the Houthis in the Red Sea, offer the US military a taste of what it would take in a high-level war: lots of firepower.
“The volume of weaponry — the number of missiles and other systems that would be required to deal with a high-level conflict — are far more than we had planned,” Bradley Martin, a surface warfare captain, told Business of the retired Navy. The insider.
“We also lack the industrial base to expand rapidly,” he added. “So it’s really important that we start addressing those sets of issues quickly.”
Billions of dollars of ammunition fired overseas
The Biden administration has provided Ukraine with over $60 billion in security aid since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
A Ukrainian soldier installs a fuse for a 155 mm artillery shell, which was a key munition during the war. AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka
According to publicly available information provided by the Pentagon, this lethal aid includes tens of thousands of missiles and rockets, hundreds of thousands of mortar shells, and millions of artillery shells and bullets. 155mm shells have been in particularly high demand and stocks have been strained.
Beyond munitions, the US has also sent Ukraine a significant amount of armored vehicles, air defense systems, drones, anti-tank weapons, small arms and more.
The Biden administration has been much less transparent about the security aid it has sent to Israel, but the Costs of War Project, a research initiative at Brown University, revealed last month that the US had approved at least $18 billion in security aid for Israel since that time. The war broke out after the Hamas massacre on October 7, 2023.
Arms shipments since then have consisted of large quantities of munitions, including thousands of anti-tank rockets, tens of thousands of artillery shells and artillery shells, and tens of thousands of air-dropped bombs.
Meanwhile, the US military has spent the past year actively engaged in combat operations against the Houthis, Iran-backed rebels in Yemen, who have used missiles and drones to attack commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the Gulf. of Aden.
An F/A-18 Super Hornet lands on the flight deck of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in April. US Navy photo
US warships and aircraft have fired hundreds of munitions to knock down Houthi threats and hit rebels in Yemen, including a wide range of surface-to-air, surface-to-air, air-to-air and air-to-air missiles. surface weapons.
The Navy also launched interceptor missiles to protect Israel from Iranian attacks in April and October. These two cases, along with the anti-Houthi operations, have seen the US spend nearly $2 billion worth of munitions.
After all, the U.S. has contributed about $80 billion in weaponry — including transferring or spending a significant amount of munitions — to support conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, which show no sign of abating.
Production problems – and improvements
Former US military officers who have participated in war-gaming exercises for various research institutions say the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East underscore the high cost of munitions needed in a major war.
“We’ve seen the munitions requirements of a major war, which are not a surprise — everyone knows that protracted major power wars use a lot of munitions,” Mark Cancian, a defense expert and colonel of the Retired US Marines.
A Navy destroyer fires an interceptor missile to protect Israel from an Iranian ballistic missile attack in October. US Navy Video/Screengrab
“We never thought we would be in such a position and these events have shown us what the demands might be, combined with a strategy that now recognizes that we could end up in a great power conflict that could continue for a long time. ,” said Cancian, now a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Martin, the former Navy captain, said replenishing US stockpiles of munitions that have been transferred to partners or fired overseas is important, but it is essential that the defense-industrial base actually has the capacity to produce new munitions. when demand increases.
“What we’re seeing from real-world examples is that ammunition costs are going to be very high,” said Martin, now a senior policy researcher at RAND. “If ever there was a wake-up call, it would be the campaigns in Ukraine and the Middle East.”
Indeed, a US military official previously told BI that “the military is closely watching the war in Ukraine” and “investing to better prepare for potential conflict.” But this preparation is an essential undertaking.
One type of weapon that would be needed in large numbers for a potential conflict with an adversary like China, the Pentagon’s “quick challenge,” are air defense interceptors, particularly those from the Standard Missile family.
The US has sent three Patriot batteries to Ukraine, along with the associated interceptor missiles. US Army photo by Sgt. Alexandra Shea
A US-China war could take place primarily in the maritime domain. Given Beijing’s formidable arsenal of anti-ship missiles, Navy ships would need to be well armed with interceptors to take down these threats and protect US assets in the Pacific.
Officials and analysts have expressed concern about stockpiles of these interceptors, especially given their use during high-speed operations in the Middle East. They argue that the US needs more key interceptors for future conflicts. However, these munitions come at a high price and production has declined.
Land-based air defenses have also proven their value in major conflicts in recent years. The US has moved Patriot batteries and their associated interceptor missiles to Ukraine, where they have been training against Russian missiles. This advanced system was also used to defend Israel against Iranian missiles in April. Lockheed Martin is ramping up production of PAC-3 interceptors, but there are questions about whether it is enough.
Beyond air defense, air-launched interdiction weapons such as the AGM-158C Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) and the AGM-158B Joint Air-to-Surface Missile (JASSM) would also be critical to US forces in a great conflict. especially against China.
The Tomahawk Surface-Attack cruise missile, a key long-range naval weapon on which the military has relied heavily, would also be needed in significant numbers for a high-level conflict, which, given the more strong among American enemies, it may not be a just war.